行业研究前沿课程系列第四期
疫情之后：全球经济金融模式之重构
主讲人：
范为
时间：
2021年11月4日（周四）18：40-20：30
地点：
北京大学第二教学楼304教室
主讲人简介：
范为，申万宏源证券固定收益融资总部总经理，国家发改委债券预审员，中国证券业协会私募债券资格评审专家。
主持人：
锁凌燕（永利集团3044am官方入口教授）
主办单位：
永利集团3044am官方入口
北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心
北京大学中国金融研究中心
北大经院工作坊第360场
Mutual Risk Sharing and Fintech: The Case of Xiang Hu Bao
风险、保险与不确定性经济学工作坊
主讲人：
Hanming Fang（宾夕法尼亚大学教授）
主持老师：
（人大财金）陈泽
（北大经院）贾若
（清华经管）刘晨源
参与老师：
（北大经院）郑伟
（清华经管）陈秉正
（人大财金）魏丽 等
时间：
2021年11月4日（周四）9：00-10：30
形式：
Zoom会议
会议号：974 303 1538
会议密码：2021104
主讲人简介：
Hanming Fang is Joseph M. Cohen Term Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. He is an applied microeconomist with broad theoretical and empirical interests focusing on public economics, including topics such as discrimination, social insurance, and welfare reform, health insurance markets, and population aging. In 2008, Professor Fang was awarded the 17th Kenneth Arrow Prize by the International Health Economics Association (iHEA) for his research on the sources of advantageous selection in the Medigap insurance market. He was elected as a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 2018. Professor Fang is currently working on issues related to insurance markets, particularly the interaction between the health insurance reform and the labor market, and the alternative health insurance reform proposals. He also studies the Chinese economy, particularly on issues related to political economy, population aging, and social security.
摘要：
Xiang Hu Bao (XHB), meaning 'mutual treasury' in Chinese, is a novel online mutual aid platform operated by Alibaba's Ant Financial to facilitate mutual risk sharing of critical illness exposures. XHB reached nearly 100 million members in less than one year since its launch and so far has offered its members critical illness protections at significantly lower cost than traditional critical illness insurance. There are three major distinctions between XHB and traditional insurance products. First, XHB leverages the tech giant's platform and digital technology to lower enrollment and claim processing costs. Second, different from insurance applying sophisticated actuarial pricing models, XHB collects no premiums ex ante from members, but instead equally allocates indemnities and administrative costs among participants after each claims period. Third, XHB limits coverage amount, often below critical illness insurance products, particularly for older participants. We show this restriction potentially leads to separating equilibrium, a la Rothschild-Stiglitz, where low-risk individuals enroll in XHB while high-risk individuals purchase critical illness insurance. Data shows that the incidence rate of the covered illness among XHB members is well below that of comparable critical illness insurance. Our findings further suggest the role of advantageous selection in explaining the cost advantages of the Fintech-based mutual aid programs.
北大经院工作坊第361场
发展中国家的绿色革命与收入差距
生态、环境与气候经济学工作坊
主讲人：
黄开兴（北京大学中国农业政策研究中心研究员）
主持老师：
（北大现代农学院）侯玲玲
参与老师：
（北大经院）章政、张博、李虹、张鹏飞、季曦、刘政文、梁远宁
（北大国发院）徐晋涛、王敏、邢剑炜、易媛媛
（北大现代农学院）刘承芳、解伟、王悦
时间：
2021年11月4日（周四）12:00-14:00
地点：
永利集团3044am官方入口107会议室
主讲人简介：
黄开兴，经济学博士，北京大学中国农业政策研究中心研究员，博士生导师。研究方向为环境经济学、农业经济学和经济增长。论文发表于Journal of Environmental Economics and Management、Journal of Economic Surveys、Oxford Economic Papers、Journal of Agricultural Economics等期刊。
摘要：
Developing countries sharing nearly identical growth trends for centuries have dramatically diverged in income per capita since the 1960s. Based on data from 75 developing countries accounting for 90% of the developing-world population, this study shows that the Green Revolution (GR), starting from the mid-1960s, can explain most of the income divergence. Beyond the conventional understanding that the GR created income gap by disproportionately promoting economic growth across countries, this study finds that the developing countries that gained less agricultural productivity from the GR were substantially damaged by GR-induced grain imports, which increased fertility while retarding capital formation. Based on the exogenous timing of the GR across crops and cross-country variation in agro-climatic suitability for cultivating different crops, this study estimates that approximately half of the developing countries were significantly damaged by the GR. Without the GR, Asian developing countries could have experienced no faster growth, on average, than African countries.
北大经院工作坊第362场
了解跨期相关性的卖家
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：
Roland Strausz (Professor, Hamboldt University of Berlin)
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛、吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）汪浩、胡岠
时间：
2021年11月4日（周四）16：00-17：30
形式：
zoom会议
会议号：926 7582 6417
会议密码：791076
主讲人简介：
Roland Strausz is Full Professor and Chair of the Institute for Economic Theory at Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Germany. His research interests is contract theory, mechanism design and industrial organization.
摘要：
We consider a multi-product monopolist who sells her products sequentially to a buyer with privately known valuations. Using big data, the monopolist perfectly learns the intertemporal correlations of the buyer's valuations. Despite her perfect learning, perfect price discrimination is generally unattainable--even under full commitment, because of an informational externality between the consumer's initial valuation and the correlation structure. This complementarity implies that, despite the seller's perfect knowledge of correlations, the buyer's private information about his initial valuation yields him information rents also for his later consumption. Upward distortions are a robust feature of the resulting monopolistic distortions and their presence are non-monotonic in the seller's data-mining abilities.
北大经院工作坊第363场
金融风险传染机制和宏观审慎压力测试
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：
何晓贝（北京大学国家发展研究院博士）
主持老师：
（北大国发院）黄卓
（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）沈艳、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：
2021年11月5日（周五） 10:00-11:30
地点：
国家发展研究院承泽园246教室
主讲人简介：
何晓贝博士，北大国发院智库宏观与绿色金融实验室副主任。德国法兰克福大学经济学博士。曾在清华大学五道口金融学院和金融机构从事宏观经济研究工作，中国人民银行金融研究所访问学者。研究领域为宏观经济、货币政策和金融稳定，研究成果发表在国内外核心学术期刊。
摘要：
金融风险传染是一个小的冲击演化成系统性金融风险的关键。在实践中，现有的银行的压力测试是静态的，并不考虑金融风险在金融机构之间的传染，因而很可能低估一个小的冲击造成的后果。我们基于银行微观数据，考察了价格渠道形成的风险传染机制，对银行系统资产抛售传染的过程进行了沙盘推演。我们的模型重点刻画了银行在约束条件下的最优抛售行为，模拟了资产抛售导致的金融风险在银行间的传染路径。模拟结果显示，金融风险的演化呈非线性，单个银行的最优行为加总后可能成为放大风险传染的因素，因此建立动态的、模拟金融风险传染的宏观审慎压力测试至关重要。
学术午餐会第170期
网络信息辅助下的协方差矩阵估计
主讲人：
李少然（永利集团3044am官方入口助理教授）
时间：
2021年 11月5日（周五）12:30-14:00
地点：
永利集团3044am官方入口302会议室
主持人：
高明（永利集团3044am官方入口副教授）
论文题目：
Augment Large Covariance Matrix Estimation with Auxiliary Network Information
主讲人简介：
李少然老师于2021年7月获得剑桥大学博士学位，同年加入永利集团3044am官方入口金融系担任助理教授。他的研究方向是金融计量、资产定价、投资组合管理以及机器学习。
摘要：
This paper aims to incorporate auxiliary information about the location of significant correlations into the estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices. With the development of machine learning techniques such as textual analysis, granular linkage information among firms that used to be notoriously hard to get are now becoming available to researchers. Our proposed method provides an avenue for combining those auxiliary network information with traditional economic datasets to improve the estimation of a large covariance matrix. Simulation results show that the proposed adaptive correlation thresholding method generally performs better in the estimation of covariance matrices than previous methods, especially when the true covariance matrix is sparse and the auxiliary network contains genuine information. As a preliminary application, we apply the method to the estimation of the covariance matrix of asset returns. There are several extensions and improvements that we are considering.
供稿单位：永利集团3044am官方入口科研办公室
美编：初夏、丸子
责编：量子、禾雨、予天
