北大经济史学名家系列讲座
第189讲
经济不稳定性研究传统视域下的明斯基思想考察
主讲人：李黎力（中国人民大学永利集团3044am官方入口副教授）
时间：2023年6月6日（周二）10：10-12：00
地点：永利集团3044am官方入口302会议室
主持人：张越（永利集团3044am官方入口经济史学系副研究员）
评论人：
杨虎涛（中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员）
杨春学（首都经济贸易大学永利集团3044am官方入口教授）
周建波（永利集团3044am官方入口经济史学系主任、教授）
主讲人简介：
李黎力，经济学博士，中国人民大学永利集团3044am官方入口经济思想史教研室主任，中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院研究员。美国密苏里大学堪萨斯分校（UMKC）访问学者，中华外国经济学说研究会、北京外国经济学说研究会理事，经济学史学会（HES）会员、萨缪尔斯青年学者。“黄达-蒙代尔经济学奖”、“中国经济学优秀博士论文奖”和教育部“博士研究生学术新人奖”获得者。澎湃新闻专栏作者，《财经》、中信等读书会特邀主讲嘉宾，《喜马拉雅经济学课》导读名师。著有《明斯基经济思想研究》，译有《殿堂：经济学大师的思想》《货币国定论》。主要研究货币金融思想史和经济思想编史学，主要讲授《经济学说史》“金课”课程。
主办单位：
永利集团3044am官方入口经济史学系
北京大学社会经济史研究所
北京大学外国经济学说研究中心
北大经院工作坊第675场
Willingness to Pay for Long-Term Care Insurance: the Role of the Health effect
“经院-全健院”
健康与劳动经济学工作坊
主讲人：刘子宁（中央财经大学助理教授）
主持人：（北大全健院）吕蓓妮
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、Kevin Devereux、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、孙宇、潘聿航、林昊翔
时间：2023年6月7日（周三）10：00-11：30
线下地点：北京大学科技园4层403室
线上形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：756 016 3457
密码：221221
主讲人简介：
刘子宁，永利集团3044am官方入口经济学博士毕业，中央财经大学保险学院讲师，兼任亚太风险与保险学会（APRIA）常务理事。研究领域集中在长期护理保险、健康保险和保险经济学，主持一项国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目。在China Economic Review、《金融研究》、《经济科学》等国内外期刊发表论文数篇。
摘要：
We develop a utility-based model to estimate the adjusted willingness to pay (WTP) for long-term care insurances (LTCI) considering LTCI has a health effect on the insured. To evaluate the role that health effect of LTCI may play in evaluating LTC, we first calibrate the health dynamics to obtain LTCI-dependent health transition matrix. Then we develop a utility-based model and use backward induction to calculate the adjusted WTP incorporating health effect and decompose this WTP into two parts, namely the risk pooling part originating from consumption smoothing effect and risk mitigation part originating from health effect. Based on this adjusted WTP, we discuss different LTCI policy designs regarding to eligibility criteria and reimbursement methods. The findings suggest that WTP for LTCI exhibits an inverted U shape as wealth increases. Moreover, considering the health effect, WTP for all wealth groups is increased. When the investigating the preferences for four different LTCI pro-grams, we find the poorer prefer LTCI that only covers severe disabilities and pays in cash, while the wealthier prefer LTCI that covers both moderate and severe disabilities and pays in-kind. Our estimates provide important policy implications for both evaluating public LTCI policy and explaining private LTCI demand puzzle.
北大经院工作坊第676场
Super Factory Comes to Town: Identifying the Agglomeration Spillovers from Foxconn Factory in Henan
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：马弘（清华大学经济管理学院经济系教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
时间：2023年6月8日（周四）10：00-11：30
地点：永利集团3044am官方入口305会议室
主讲人简介：
马弘，教授、博导、清华大学经济管理学院经济系系副主任、国家级青年人才计划获得者。2002年毕业于复旦大学永利集团3044am官方入口世界经济系，获学士学位；2009年获得加州大学戴维斯分校（UC, Davis）经济学博士学位。马弘教授从事中国经济领域的研究工作，主要集中在国际贸易和经济发展等方向。在Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Economic Journal, 《经济研究》等国内外一流经济学杂志发表论文数十篇。目前担任商务部咨询专家，Journal of Comparative Economics、China Economic Review的副主编，清华大学中国经济研究中心副主任，清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心研究员，清华大学国际与地区研究院培养委员会委员。
摘要：
This paper investigates the spillover effects of super factories on local manufacturing sector through agglomeration in developing economies. We use evidence from the largest provider of electronic manufacturing service in the world: Foxconn. Using its unexpected investment in Henan province of China as a quasi-natural experiment, we adopt a geographic difference-in-difference approach that exploits the spatial decay of the agglomeration effects from Foxconn factories. We find that the increase in the labor productivity of the regions closer to Foxconn factories is larger than those of regions further away. This finding is robust to a battery of validity checks. Consistent with the agglomeration spillovers, firm entry and labor costs increase more in regions closer to Foxconn factories than further away.
北大经院工作坊第677场
Does Enterprise Risk Management Bolster Investor Confidence? Evidence from Options-Based Restatement Contagion, Investment, and Misstatements
风险、保险与不确定性经济学工作坊
主讲人：徐健人（美国北德克萨斯大学瑞恩商学院金融系副教授、终身教授）
主持人：
（人大财金）陈泽
（北大经院）贾若
（清华经管）刁莉
参与老师：
（人大财金）魏丽
（北大经院）郑伟
（清华经管）陈秉正等
时间：2023年6月8日（周四）10：00-11：30
线下地点：中国人民大学明德主楼836教室
线上形式：腾讯会议
会议号：374 233 247
主讲人简介：
徐健人，美国北德克萨斯大学瑞恩商学院金融系副教授（终身教授），博士生导师。研究领域包括公司风险管理、财务会计、金融中介、行为经济学。他在保险业界有三年工作经验，并拥有ARM（Associate in Risk Management）头衔。在国际领先学术期刊（Journal of Risk and Insurance, North American Actuarial Journal等）发表了多篇论文，并获得过多个最佳论文奖（包括美国非寿险精算师协会，亚太风险管理与保险协会，美国西部风险管理和保险协会，美国西南金融系会，Risk Management and Insurance Review期刊等）以及优秀教学奖。数篇文章在所属期刊（Journal of Risk and Insurance，Risk Management and Insurance Review）评为“最高引用率论文”。徐教授曾任美国西部风险管理和保险协会秘书长和财务主管，亦是美国国际期刊Journal of Insurance Regulation的编委。
摘要：
We test the role of enterprise risk management (ERM) in bolstering investor confidence in a dynamic risk environment. Specifically, we examine whether firms' use of an ERM program reduces the impact of an external negative risk shock—intra-industry restatement contagion. We hand-collect firms' ERM status and measure contagion risk using the change in industry peers' option-implied volatility skewness around restatement filing dates. We find that ERM mitigates restatement contagion risk. Consistent with information benefits, ERM's effect on contagion is larger among peers with larger bid/ask spreads or analyst forecast dispersion, lower institutional ownership, and higher idiosyncratic volatility. Consistent with real benefits, ERM firms are less likely to engage in a material misstatement or overinvestment when another firm in their industry misstates earnings. Overall, we find that investors perceive ERM as a valuable tool to protect firms against downside risk and the perception is supported by firms' real underlying risk reduction.
北大经院工作坊第678场
Understanding Regressions with Observations Collected at High Frequency over Long Span
（长期高频观测数据下的回归分析）
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：Ye Lu（School of Economics, University of Sydney）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆、王法
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2023年6月9日（周五） 10：00-11：30
地点：永利集团3044am官方入口107会议室
主讲人简介：
Ye Lu is currently a senior lecturer at the School of Economics, University of Sydney. Her work focuses on econometric theory, macroeconometrics, financial econometrics, and point process models. She has had several publications in the Journal of Econometrics.
摘要：
In this paper, we analyze regressions with observations collected at small time intervals over a long period of time. For the formal asymptotic analysis, we assume that samples are obtained from continuous time stochastic processes, and let the sampling interval δ shrink down to zero and the sample span T increase up to infinity. In this setup, we show that the standard Wald statistic diverges to infinity and the regression becomes spurious as long as δ → 0 sufficiently fast relative to T → ∞. Such a phenomenon is indeed what is frequently observed in practice for the type of regressions considered in the paper. In contrast, our asymptotic theory predicts that the spuriousness disappears if we use the robust version of the Wald test with an appropriate long-run variance estimate. This is supported, strongly and unambiguously, by our empirical illustration.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：兮哲
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
